Pebble Creek
Snow-off-the-meadow Contest
The deadline for guesses this year has passed.
The annual game is called
"Guess when the snow will leave the meadow"
... or, more quantitatively, guess when the snow water equivalent (SWE) level at the Snotel site on Rock Creek in Eagles Nest Wilderness (Summit County CO) falls below five inches. The graph at the right shows those dates since 1980. The red line (linear regression) shows that the date has been getting earlier by 11 hours per year.
To see the current status, rollover graph to the left
A little background: Bulah Walls (1906-1997) owned the Summit Guest Ranch on Pebble Creek from 1936 until 1980. She said that the snow went off the meadow "about May tenth" each year. That is a rather subjective assessment. So, in order to give it a more objective basis, we checked the average amount of snow historically on May 10 at the Snotel weather station on Rock Creek; it was about 5 inches of "snow water equivalent." So the game is to guess when the SWE first falls below five inches. Please note that as global temperatures rise, the date has been getting earlier than May 10 over time (since 2012, it has never been on or after May 10).
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CURRENT GUESSES
21 April - Erin Nordlof 23 April - Peter Lord, Conny Ridge
25 April - David Kornhauser
27 April - Bob Holston
28 April - Michael Hoke, Catherine & David Mickey
29 April - Linda Hedenberg, Martin Herre, Meredith Lord, Lisa Kendall, Jay Browne
30 April - Jennifer Betz
31 April - Harlee Sorkin
1 May - Bill Betz, Andrea Herre
2 May - Joan Betz, Doug Spainhower
3 May - Lee Johnson, Diane Wohl, Mattias Nordlof, Brandi Holston, Ray Hedenberg
4 May - Eric Malmborg
5 May - John Eisemann, Emmy Betz
6 May - Lisa Bernard
10 May - Scott Simcox, Bo Chapin
21 May - Maria Eisemann
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CURRENT COMMENTS
Bill Betz: May 1, May Day. From the French "M'aidez," for "Help me."
Martin & Andrea Herre: April 29 & May 1: ...all is based on scientific research looking out our south windows and walking the the dogs on the meadow daily.
Harlee Sorkin: April 31: "I'm certain of it this year."
David Mickey: 28 April: "That extension is just for people like Catherine and I. We think April 28th. Although, i should be wishing for even earlier, so i can get going up there!"
Jay Browne: 29 April: "after careful analysis I'm going with April 29 at 4pm!"
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PAST YEARS
2023 GUESSES (winning date: May 2)
20 April - Bo Chapin
21 April - Con Ridge
23 April - Joan Betz
27 April - Lisa Kendall
28 April - Peter Lord
29 April - Bob Holston, Mattias Nordlof, Doug Spainhower
30 April - Diane Simcox
1 May - Bill Betz, Jen Betz, Jay Browne, Andrea Herre
2 May - Brandi Holston, Catherine Mickey, Erin Nordlof, Emmy Betz, David Kornhauser
3 May - Ray Hedenberg
4 May - Polly Drew, Norma Wyler, John Eisemann, Linda Hedenberg
5 May - Meredith Lord, David Mickey, Martin Herre
6 May - Scott Simcox
7 May - Michael Hoke, Bob Wyler
10 May - Maria Eisemann
31 May - Sam Kirk
2023 COMMENTS
Ray Hedenberg: I'm staying with my annual entry of May 3, 2023 @ 2:47pm.
Meredith Lord's guess: May 5 (was my dad's birthday)
Jay Browne: innovative overlay of Niwot forecast on top of Summit GR data reveals May 1 as the winner!
Harlee Sorkin: If I say April 31 I can’t be wrong.
David Mickey: I will take May 5th. I am always hopeful for more snow.
Bill Betz: I guess May 1, fearing more winter lies ahead. Q: What did the spring say when it was in trouble? A: May Day!!
Linda Hedenberg: May the Fourth be with us.
Doug Spainhower: Carnak says April 29, 2023
2022 GUESSES (winning dates: April 22 & 27)
13 April - Harlee Sorkin
20 April - Bo Chapin
21 April - Conny Ridge, Peter Lord, Andrea Herre
22 April - Bill Betz, Lee & Jessica Johnson, Jennifer Betz, Erin Nordlof
24 April - Martin Herre
25 April - Joan Betz, Brandi Holston
27 April - John Eisemann
28 April - Lisa Bernard, Jay Browne
28 April - Bob Holston, Michael Hoke
30 April - Maria Eisemann
1 May - Emmy Betz
2 May - Scott Simcox
3 May - Ray Hedenberg
5 May - Mickey Family
20 May - Bill Porter
2022 COMMENTS
Bill Betz - Same as last year - Jen's BEarthday
Conny Ridge - V's birthday!
Harlee Sorkin - That's depressing...
Bo Chapin - grandson's and my birthday
David Mickey - It's our son's birthday, as well as feeling optimistic about late season snow, which would always be a good thing.
Jay Browne - I've foregone a scientific analysis in favor of my psychic powers... April 28 is the magic award winning date!
Ray Hedenberg - May 3 (daughter's birthday)
2021 GUESSES (winning dates: April 19, 24, and 25)
16 April - Jay Browne (4/13)
18 April - Linda Hedenberg
19 April - Doug Spainhower
20 April - Bo Chapin, Harlee Sorkin
21 April - Martin Herre
22 April - Bill Betz
23 April - Lisa Kendall
24 April - Maria Eisemann, Michael Hoke, Bill Porter
25 April - Andrea Herre
26 April - Sue Bonfield & Dave Schimel
27 April - Nordloff Family
28 April - Meredith Lord
29 April - David Kornhauser, Antony Ridge
30 April - Jen Betz
1 May - Joan Betz, Johnson Family
2 May - Lisa Bernard, Penny Francis
3 May - Polly Drew, Peter Lord, John Eisemann, Ray Hedenberg
4 May - Greg Bernard, Mickey Family
5 May - Emmy Betz, Conny Ridge
12 May - Scott Simcox
2021 COMMENTS
Bill Betz - "Jen's BEarthday - April 22"
Harlee Sorkin - "Please mail my winning check to ..."
Martin Herre - "thanks for including us! I am guessing Apr21 - low snow year and warm temps to boot"
John Eisemann - "I'm keeping my fingers crossed that I will be spot on this year and get meteorological bragging rights!"
Michael Hoke - "Based entirely on my experience today (4/8) of Denver's heat wave, I am going to guess that the snow will be gone by April 24."
Johnson Family - "Having consulted with our son's new puppy (a far cry from a groundhog but will have to do in a pinch), it feels like a slightly early spring so I'm going with May 1st!"
Penny Francis - "Hard to visualize snow when we are sitting in 80+ weather in Texas so we will take a gamble at May 2nd"
Antony Ridge - "Violet and I remember when there was a hefty snow fall on 4th/5th July, and the meadow was white, but that was a one-off after a snow clear- time and so wouldn't have counted"
Conny Ridge - "My guess is May the 5th, solely on the fact that the 5th of May was Liberation Day in Holland in 1945. So you might be liberated from the snow too."
Mickey Family - "May 4. And that is truly a guess."
Bill Porter - "I will go for April 24 my birthday!"
2020 RESULTS (winning date: May 2)
27 April - Erin Nordloff
28 April - Mattias Nordloff
30 April - David Kornhauser
2 May - Scott Simcox
3 May - Linda & Ray Hedenberg; Meredith Lord, John Eisemann
4 May - Bill Betz
5 May - Jennifer Betz
6 May - Jay Brown
7 May - Peter Lord
8 May - Eric Malmborg
9 May - Doug Spainhower
10 May - Mickey family, Lee Johnson
11 May - Sam Kirk
12 May - Lisa Kendall, Joan Betz
14 May - Michael Hoke
15 May - Emmy Betz
22 May - Penny Francis & Ray Petereit
1 June - Maria Eisemann
2019 RESULTS (winning date was May 5)
Joan Betz - May 1
Ray Hedenberg - May 3 (4:47pm)
Michael Hoke, Lisa Kendall - May 4
Erin Nordlof, Eric Malmborg, Michael Rapp - May 8
Emmy Betz - May 9
Bill Betz, Jennifer Betz - May 10
Scott Simcox, John Eisemann - May 11
Penny & Ray Petereit - May 12
Linda Hedenberg - May 14
Jay Browne - May 15
Meredith Lord - May 16
Polly Drew, Lee Johnson - May 17
Mattias Nordlof, Sam Kirk - May 18
Doug Spainhower - May 20
Maria Eisemann - May 28
Bob Wyler - June 1
2018 RESULTS (winning date was April 25)
Ray Hedenberg - March 28
Meredith & Peter Lord - March 30
Michael Hoke, Terese Swartz - April 1
Emmy Betz - April 2
Bill Betz - April 3
Jennifer Betz - April 5
Lisa Kendall - April 8
Sam Kirk, Mike Beach - April 10
Jay Browne - April 11
Doug Spainhower - April 12
Lee Johnson - April 13
Joan Betz - April 15
Bill Porter - April 17
Mattias Nordlof - April 20
John Eisemann - April 21
Maria Eisemann, Erin Nordloff - April 25
2017 RESULTS (winning date was April 18)
Marshall McKinney - April 12
Doug Spainhower - April 15
Lee Johnson - April 17
Eric Malmborg - April 18
Adam Poe - April 19
Bill Betz - April 20
Jay Browne - April 21
Emmy Betz - April 22
John Eisemann - April 23
Joan Betz - April 24
Scott Simcox - April 25
Erin Nordlof - April 26 (late entry)
Diane Simcox - May 1
Debbie Liptzin - May 6
Maria Eisemann - May 9
Harlee Sorkin - May 10
2016 RESULTS: The winning date was May 5 (noon); the winners were Sam Kirk & Bill Betz (tie)
Meredith Lord - April 1
Peter Lord - April 5
Lee Johnson - April 7
Joan Betz - April 8
Linda Hedenberg - April 10
Emmy Betz - April 14
Lindsay Lord - April 18
Deb Liptzin - April 20
Jen Betz - April 22
Marshall McKinney - April 25
Lisa Kendall - April 27
Jay Browne - April 28
Erin Nordloff - May 1
Doug Spainhower - May 2
Bill Betz - May 3
ACTUAL DATE - May 5, noon
Sam Kirk - May 7
2015 RESULTS: The winning date was April 11; Jay Browne was the winner.
B Betz 4/5
B Rapp 4/6
M Rapp 4/9
J Browne 4/10
ACTUAL DATE 4/11
J Betz 4/13
L Johnson 4/15
L Hedenberg 4/17
M Hoke 4/18
ME Betz 4/20
JS Betz 4/22
S kirk 4/25
R Hedenberg 5/3
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